Showbiz Sandbox 307: Can Guild Nominations Forecast Oscar Winners?

This year’s Academy Award nominations will soon be announced and we wonder if one can predict who might take home Oscar gold by watching the annual honors handed out by Hollywood’s labor guilds. We’ll tell you how won Golden Globes, which have proven less reliable in forecasting Oscar winners, and take a look at who the Brits shine a spotlight on via the BAFTAs.

Much like the movie business, publishing has become a global game. That makes the recent broadside by groups representing authors around the world especially notable. They’re calling on publishers to offer author contracts that are more equitable and represent the way business is done in the 21st Century.

Director/Producer Gavin Polone believes Hollywood studios and television networks are only hurting themselves when they decide to cook the books when it comes to reporting earnings to profit participants. He argues that the talent and creatives they cheat on the backend have no incentive to keep costs down on the front end.

Of course we also cover the week’s top entertainment news including how Netflix went worldwide, actor Sean Penn went to Mexico to interview the head of a drug cartel and the death of legendary musician David Bowie.

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‘Star Wars’ Beats ‘The Revenant’ in U.S., Storms China With Record $53M Debut
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-star-wars-beats-853756

Why ‘The Revenant’ Proves Leonardo DiCaprio May Be Hollywood’s Biggest Star
https://variety.com/2016/film/box-office/leonardo-dicaprio-revenant-box-office-1201676230/

Producers Guild Surprises With Nods for ‘Compton,’ ‘Sicario’
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/06/movies/producers-guild-surprises-with-nods-for-compton-sicario.html

‘The Martian,’ ‘Straight Outta Compton’ Land Writers Guild Nominations
https://variety.com/2016/film/news/martian-straight-outta-compton-writers-guild-nominations-1201672993/

‘Bridge of Spies,’ ‘Carol,’ ‘Mad Max,’ ‘Revenant,’ ‘Sicario’ Nominated for ASC Awards
https://variety.com/2016/film/news/asc-awards-nominations-mad-max-revenant-sicario-1201672842/

‘Carol’ and ‘Bridge of Spies’ Lead Bafta Nominations
http://blogs.wsj.com/speakeasy/2016/01/08/carol-and-bridge-of-spies-lead-bafta-nominations/

Golden Globes: The Complete Winners List
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/golden-globes-winners-2016-list-853010

Authors Guild Begins Letter-Writing Campaign to Meet with Publishers
http://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/publisher-news/article/69050-authors-guild-begins-letter-writing-campaign-to-meet-with-publishers.html

2016: An International Coalition of Author Advocacy Challenges Publishing Contracts
http://porteranderson.com/2016-international-coalition-author-advocacy-challenges-publishing-contracts/

Libraries Lend Record Numbers of Ebooks and Audiobooks in 2015
http://www.digitalbookworld.com/2016/libraries-lend-record-numbers-of-ebooks-and-audiobooks-in-2015/

Book Groups Voice Concern About Hong Kong Booksellers
http://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/publisher-news/article/69099-book-group-expresses-concern-over-fate-of-hong-kong-booksellers.html

Thousands of Hong Kong Protesters Gather to Demand Release of Booksellers
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/10/thousands-of-hong-kong-protesters-gather-to-demand-release-of-booksellers

China’s Wanda Acquiring Controlling Stake in Legendary Entertainment
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/chinas-wanda-acquiring-controlling-stake-852068

Nabokov, Neruda and Borges Revealed As Losers of 1965 Nobel prize
http://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/jan/06/borges-auden-nabokov-neruda-nobel-prize-literature-1965?CMP=twt_books_b-gdnbooks

ABC Family Becomes Freeform
http://www.rapidtvnews.com/2016011041278/abc-family-becomes-freeform.html

At CES, Netflix Adds Over 130 Countries to Streaming Service
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/07/business/media/netflix-expands-its-streaming-service-worldwide.html?_r=0

Coachella 2016: Guns N’ Roses, LCD Soundsystem, Calvin Harris to headline
http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/music/posts/la-et-ms-coachella-2016-line-up-to-feature-guns-n-roses-lcd-soundsystem-calvin-harris-more-20160104-story.html

Governors Ball 2016 Books Kanye West, the Strokes and the Killers
http://artsbeat.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/01/08/governors-ball-kanye-west-strokes-killers/

El Chapo Speaks
http://www.rollingstone.com/culture/features/el-chapo-speaks-20160109?page=18

Will Sean Penn Face Legal Trouble for Secretly Interviewing El Chapo?
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/thr-esq/will-sean-penn-face-legal-853908

How Rolling Stone Handled Ramifications of El Chapo Exclusive
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/11/business/media/how-rolling-stone-magazine-handled-a-get-with-ramifications.html

Ringling Bros. Circus to Retire Elephant Shows in May
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/ringling-bros-circus-retire-elephant-854508

Relativity Turns to Kevin Spacey and Dana Brunetti to Run Its Film, TV Business
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/relativity-turns-kevin-spacey-dana-852782

Broadway Box Office Rings in $1.35 Billion in 2015, Gets Record-Breaking Start to 2016
https://variety.com/2016/legit/news/broadway-box-office-2015-records-1201671519/

Why 2015 Home Entertainment Figures Should Worry Studios
https://variety.com/2016/digital/news/home-entertainment-spending-2015-studios-1201673329/

Gavin Polone: How Studios’ Phony Accounting Screws Everyone (Including Themselves)
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/gavin-polone-how-studios-phony-852075

David Bowie Dead at 69
http://www.rollingstone.com/music/news/david-bowie-dead-at-69-20160111

‘Bowie Bonds’ – The Singer’s Financial Innovation
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35280945